While those two states offer a chance for candidates to practice the retail politics not possible in places like California or New York, issues of particular importance to minority communities are generally ignored. In Iowa, Latinos make up a little less than three percent of the population while African Americans make up two percent. In New Hampshire, Latinos constitute less than two percent of the population and African Americans make up less than one percent. This is likely why, during the 2004 primary season, former Illinois Sen. Carol Mosley Braun only visited New Hampshire seven times and the Rev. Al Sharpton only three.
Yet as pivotal as the press often makes Iowa and New Hampshire seem, it could be South Carolina that gives candidates the Big Mo this year. This is particularly true for the Democratic primary. The Palmetto State is the third in the triple crown of presidential primaries, but it's the first where minorities play a major role. Half the voters in the 2004 Democratic Primary in South Carolina were African American. Similar numbers are expected this year.
South Carolina's Republican Primary usually revolves around white male voters and, for now, that seems unlikely to change. According to a recent Winthrop University/ETV poll, though, two-thirds of registered Republicans in South Carolina think their party needs to do more to reach out to minority voters. Since the state holds an open primary, African Americans could send a wake-up call to the frontrunners by voting for an underdog like Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee.
Latino voters have been growing in South Carolina, but it's Nevada where that demographic could really swing things. In the most mercurial political calendar in decades, Nevada has moved its caucuses to January 19. It remains to be seen whether this will trump South Carolina's prominence (only one percent of all eligible voters turned out in '04), but with 13 percent of the electorate in 2006, Latinos could potentially tip the scales in this now-early contest.
Leaders in both states' parties admit they moved their primaries and caucuses up from March to January, in large part, to force the candidates to reach out to a more diverse voting bloc. Whether this translates into higher turnout at the polls remains to be seen. But the game has inarguably changed.
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