10 Ways The Music Industry Will Change In 10 Years
The music business is in the midst of a growth period. With total revenues increased 10 percent in 2018 to $4.6 billion and streaming making up a whopping three-quarters of revenue, the industry is healthy albeit putting most of its eggs in the streaming technology basket. In 2019, the "biz" doesn't look that much different than it did years ago. Sure, most of the dedicated music retail is dead and gone and physical music sales are only a fraction of what they used to be, but we still have major labels, A&Rs, release dates, worldwide tours, recording contracts, record industry executives. You get the point.
But what will all of this look like in 10 years? 2029 is sure to bring about change in music just as time brings change to other industries. Look what’s happening with the car business now around autonomous vehicles and the beginning stages of driving becoming a thing of the past. We took a look into our crystal ball to highlight 10 ways the music industry will change in 10 years.
Physicals will be dead…completely.
In recent years, the nostalgia for physical music has driven additional revenue for the recording industry. In the case of vinyl, nearly 10 million album sales were tracked in 2018 with a growth trend continuing to increase. There’s no disputing that the warmth and undisturbed recordings of vinyl give a sound that can’t be replicated on streaming services (even through hi-fidelity services like Tidal). To a lesser extent, cassettes have also seen growth, but where vinyl has temporarily returned as a strong line of business for record labels, cassettes are largely driven by the Urban Outfitters of the world, giving the youth of today a glimpse into the pains of fast-forwarding and rewinding. Call it the ‘Stranger Things’ effect.
But labels and artists should temper their excitement. Much like Champion clothing and Cross Colors, physical music sales are being driven by ‘80s and ‘90s nostalgia. Streaming drove 75 percent of music industry revenue in 2018 and will continue to increase over the years leaving only a small piece of the pie (likely 5 percent or less in 10 years) to physical music sales.
An Influx Of Hip-Hop Artist Residences
Ask most seasoned artists and they will tell you they love performing but hate the grind of touring. Show, bus, try to sleep, next city, soundcheck, boredom, …wash, rinse, repeat. Not to mention the challenges around diet, overindulgence with substances and other things uniquely familiar to the road. In 10 years’ time, it won’t just be Las Vegas regularly hosting artist residencies.
While it’s unlikely mini Vegas’ are going to pop up around the world over, what we will see is more 5-10,000 seat venues being built in destinations such as Los Angeles, New York, Niagara Falls (it’s happening now), and other U.S. and international cities affording artists the opportunity to fill arenas night after night while cutting down on travel.
The size of the venues will allow artists to hold consecutive night stands, or as Billy Joel has done at Madison Square Garden, hold non-consecutive residencies where their strongest pockets of interest lie. There will still be worldwide tours, but the economics of residencies are sure to become more appealing over time.
Record Labels Will Be A Thing of The Past
Don’t Be Surprised If Your Favorite Artist Signs To Coca-Cola
As record labels go the way of the CD, artists will still require a support structure around them. DIY will always be an option but what about those artists who truly stand out above the rest? Corporations are in the business of making money and when it comes to marketing, the success of the campaign comes down to return on investment (ROI).
We’re not suggesting Coca-Cola is going to start looking to streams as a source of real revenue for the company (it likely wouldn’t even register on their balance sheet), but if an artist can be used to sell Coke (not the Rozay kind) and the investment makes sense, large corporations will act as the new labels, signing artists, providing recording budgets, giving them space to develop and using the journey as content to spread across social platforms, TV and other marketing channels as a means to sell soda and other owned brands.
Hit Songs Will Have Even More Staying Power
Ella Mai’s “Boo’d Up” was originally released in February 2017. The song ended up being heralded as the "Song of the Summer" by many publications in June of the following year. It was a great case study in how the streaming era supports songs which may not get off to the rocket-fueled start they were expected to. In the "old days," if "Boo’d Up” was chosen as a single and flopped out of the gate, the song would have essentially been discarded for a new single, or Ella Mai may have been dropped from her label.
For all its troubles, streaming and social media have increased the chances for success, especially for major label artists where patience is the order of the day vs. the “first week sales or we move on” attitude of the pre-streaming era.
VR Will Be A Viable Tool In The Music Industry
Not every music fan has the means or desires to camp-out or travel ‘cross country to attend some of the year's biggest music festivals. Virtual reality is going to be one of the bigger doors opened for the music industry in the future. Recent years have seen immersive experiences for festivals like Coachella, and musicians themselves have taken initiative too. The Gorillaz released a virtual reality music video for “Saturn Barz (Spirit House),” and Childish Gambino took it a step further with a virtual reality component for the vinyl release of Awaken, My Love!, packaging the record with a free VR headset that works with an app. This is just the beginning: as the technology powering VR continues to get better, the revenue possibilities grow.
Music fans will keep an eye on when their favorite artist is coming to town and ensure they don't miss their local tour stop. But what about those music fans who live in rural areas, or towns and cities that don't have the entertainment infrastructure to draw in big-name artists and tour packages? Imagine giving these fans the power to watch whatever tour stop they want, fully immersed in the world people are seeing live in-person.
Whether it's a random Tuesday night show or a three-day weekend festival, replicating the live experience as much as possible (for a fee of course) provides choice and opportunity for fans to see their favorite musicians as much as they want to without the hassle of secondary ticket markets, traveling to the show, etc.
Automation Will Be Used In The Song Creation Process
One of the scarier developments happening in the music industry is the use of A.I. in the songwriting and production process. In fact, this has already been happening as a 2016 experiment through Sony’s research labs showed where they used A.I. to create a Beatles-inspired song called “Daddy’s Car.”
Sure, it’s not “Hey Jude,” but considering it was generated by a computer makes it no less scary for songwriters, producers, and musicians. As record labels struggle to remain relevant and drive revenues, they also want to continue to reduce risk around the music they are putting marketing dollars behind. We already see it today with labels looking to social media numbers and existing streaming plays to take on low-risk projects. Don’t expect this to change as labels continue to look to things like automation to reduce exposure and increase chances of success.
Superstar Artists Will Be Gone
Elton John. Jay-Z. Carrie Underwood. Drake. What those four artists have in common is they all rose to fame and fortune as a result of music. That’s not to say they stayed within the confines of music to build wealth as Jay-Z’s countless investments and Drake’s clothing and endorsements show. Music remains an entryway for young musicians and opens up doors to other industries.
But in the future, it’s going to be very challenging for superstar artists to emerge solely off the strength of their music ventures. Yes, there will be exceptions to the rule. A recent example of that is Post Malone, who has been able to solely use music to position himself as one of today’s biggest stars and generate a near $10 million fortune.
With more music being created than ever before, artists will need to use their singles and albums as marketing tools to open doors, while anchoring on to other industries such as clothing, film, TV, etc. as a means to build their bank accounts. Today’s true music superstars had already diversified pre-streaming and don’t have the added weight of needing to stand-out from the flood of music being created today.
New Genres Will Emerge
For high schoolers in the ‘90s, someone would ask “what’s your favorite kind of music?” and most people would have a definitive answer. Today, go ask the average high school student and you’ll get a melting pot of genres and eras: hip-hop, ‘70s rock, EDM, pop, and the list goes on. In the playlist era, your favorite music is whatever you're listening to at the moment.
The kids of today are also the artists of tomorrow, which will no doubt result in the forming and establishing of new musical genres. We’ve already seen new sounds evolve in the streaming era such as trap, country EDM, hip-pop (think “Hotline Bling”).
What will the future hold? There is a long-brewing marriage of hip-hop and country music. Rap observers saw glimpses of this with the success of Bubba Sparxxx and in Nashville and other Southern U.S. locations, hick-hop is a cottage industry with a storied history. Not to mention several black artists with a hip-hop edge like Kane Brown sitting near the top of the country charts.
Fans Will Soundtrack Their Own Shows
Have you ever been watching a TV show and thought “I know a Kanye song that would have been perfect for that scene,” or, “I would prefer to be listening to the music I enjoy in the background or during cutscenes”? As control goes further and further into the hands of the fans in the streaming and playlist era, one would think that in the future, TV viewers will have the opportunity to soundtrack their own shows. Netflix recently announced a "choose-your-own-soundtrack" feature that has begun to open up the path to user-customized music content.
Much like YouTube has worked out licensing agreements with record labels, the ABC's and NBC's of the world could take viewer engagement to a whole new level by allowing fans to choose what background music and instrumentals power their favorite shows.
It creates another revenue stream for artists and labels. Yes, there is sync licensing now, but it’s a small group deciding what you hear during shows. Why not put the power in the hands of the people who make the stars today and in the future: the fans.
